Forecasters Optimistic About Economy, Job Creation
Forecasters more optimistic about economy as job creation grows, but still see slow recovery
The Associated Press
By EMILY FREDRIX AP Business Writer
NEW YORK April 26, 2010 (AP)
Economists are more optimistic about prospects for growth this year as industries increasingly report better profits and add new jobs, though they still expect the recovery to remain slow, a new survey shows.
Seventy percent of those recently surveyed by The National Association for Business Economics believe real GDP will grow by more than 2 percent this year, up from 61 percent who said the same in January. Twenty-four percent are predicting real GDP will grow by more than 3 percent in 2010, up from 14 percent earlier this year.
“Industry demand moved higher compared to results in the January 2010 report, pointing to stronger growth in 2010,” said William Strauss, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. “After more than two years of job losses, job creation increased in the first quarter of 2010, suggesting a better outlook for hiring over the next six months.”
The NABE forecast, set to be released Monday, shows fewer jobs are being shed, more are being created and more companies are making money.
The findings echoed results issued by Conference Board last week for its index of leading economic indicators. The figure jumped 1.4 percent in March, suggesting economic growth is likely to continue for the next three to six months. The growth was at its fastest pace in 10 months. Government data also showed that employers in March added 162,000 jobs, the most in three years.
The survey of 68 NABE members from private sector and industry trade associations takes into account first-quarter results and near-term outlook.
With industry demand on the rise for the third straight quarter, 37 percent of respondents plan to increase employment in the next six months, up from 29 percent in January. The net employment outlook index — job additions minus all cuts over the next six months — soared to 21 from 6 in the survey, with fewer respondents saying they planned to reduce staff through either attrition or layoffs. However, the bulk of employers — 46 percent, down from 48 percent — still plan no change to staffing levels.
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